Polymarket
TEMPEREDPrediction Market · Polygon · $500M+ TVL · 10 contracts
Confidence 70%Z-Factor 0.80Updated 2026-05-17Public Score
Public risk assessment — scores are produced with the same methodology as monitored protocols
724
BRI Score
3004756508251000
Security Profile
Access Control
60
60
Economic Soundness
72
72
Oracle Integrity
55
55
Compositional Risk
75
75
Governance
35
35
Maturity
72
72
Resilience
54
54
Supply Chain
78
78
Op Security
56
56
Cascade Exposure
100
100
Access Ctrl
60
60
Economic
72
72
Oracle
55
55
Compos.
75
75
Govern.
35
35
Maturity
72
72
Resilience
54
54
Supply Ch.
78
78
OpSec
56
56
Cascade
100
100
Min
35
Avg
66
Max
100
Audit History
Chainsecurity
2022-06
Sherlock Competition
2024-06
Bug Bounty Program
$500,000
Max payout on Cantina
Assessment
Prediction market with 47-month track record and ~$1B TVL. D5 very low (35) due to fully centralized governance and CFTC settlement. D3 low (55) for admin-overridable resolution oracle. Strong market adoption but significant centralization.
Dimension Breakdown
How scores work →Access Control
Weight 18%72% conf
60
arrow_forwardModerate
+15Admin controls market creation and resolution
+15User pause/unpause capability for admin
+15Centralized market resolution (UMA oracle + admin override)
+15Operator/admin role separation in CTF
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Economic Soundness
Weight 13%70% conf
72
arrow_forwardGood
+24Binary outcome token market model (well-understood)
-28USDC-based collateral (stablecoin risk)
+24Orderbook/AMM hybrid for trading
+24~$1B TVL demonstrates economic viability
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Oracle Integrity
Weight 13%68% conf
55
arrow_forwardModerate
+18UMA optimistic oracle for market resolution
-45Admin can override resolution (centralization risk)
+18Resolution disputes possible but admin has final say
+18Single oracle dependency for all market outcomes
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Battle-Tested Maturity
Weight 12%75% conf
72
arrow_forwardGood
+24Live since mid-2021 (47 months)
+24Major usage during 2024 US election cycle
-28Regulatory scrutiny adds operational risk
+24Z-factor: 0.887
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Governance & Upgradeability
Weight 10%72% conf
35
arrow_forwardCritical
+18Fully centralized operation (Polymarket Inc.)
-32No on-chain governance mechanism
+18Admin controls market creation, resolution, pausing
-32Significant regulatory concerns (CFTC settlement 2022)
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Adversarial Resiliencelock
Weight 10%95% conf
54
Concerning
- Score derived from continuous adversarial security research
Operational Security
Weight 10%60% conf
56
arrow_forwardModerate
-9No branch protection detected
+19Active CI/CD (100% success rate)
-9Minimal development activity (1 commits/month)
-9Incident response time not available (using commit frequency proxy)
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Compositional Risk
Weight 5%72% conf
75
arrow_forwardGood
+19CTF (Conditional Token Framework) from Gnosis
+19Limited DeFi composability (prediction-specific)
+19USDC dependency for all markets
+19Polygon chain deployment
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Cascade Exposure
Weight 5%50% conf
100
arrow_forwardExcellent
+50Member of 1 dependency cluster(s)
0No cross-protocol cascade exposure detected
0Score: 100/100 (higher = more isolated from systemic risk)
+50Source: cross_protocol_composition.json dependency analysis
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Supply Chain
Weight 4%75% conf
78
arrow_forwardGood
+20Gnosis CTF framework (battle-tested base)
+20Standard Solidity contracts
+20Polygon deployment (MATIC chain)
+20Moderate dependency set
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Risk Drivers
Primary risk factors driving this score, ordered by severity.
Governance & Upgradeability35
Adversarial Resilience54
Oracle Integrity55
Adversarial Risk Signals
Observable security posture indicators. These signals reflect publicly verifiable information and responsible disclosure outcomes. No specific vulnerability details are exposed.
Disclosure HistoryNot Assessed
Remediation VelocityNot Assessed
Bug Bounty ProgramNot Assessed
Audit CoverageNot Assessed
Incident HistoryNot Assessed
Score History & Verification
Score provenance tracking begins with the next reassessment.
On-Chain Data
- Protocol Slug
- "polymarket"
- Oracle
- BRORegistry (Base)
- Evidence
- IPFS (pinned)
- Staleness Threshold
- 24 hours
Read Score
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